Rate of Membership Growth/Decline Measured in two-year increments, it is clear that our unprecedented losses beginning in 2003 were actually the continuation of a ten-year trend. Looking at changes in the rate of growth and decline, instead of merely at the membership totals themselves, shows a picture quite at odds with the notion that our troubles erupted suddenly in 2002. In fact, they were well on the way by then.

We will be able to update the above chart when the 2008 membership survey is complete and we have another two-year period to add. In the meantime, a year-to-year comparison of rate of growth and decline shows a similar picture: 2003-2005 may well turn out to have been a turning point, when whatever dynamics contributed to the ten-year declining growth rate trend began a painful process of correction.

Next: Part 3 -- Growing to Non-Growing Church Ratio